Inside Orchard

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Spotify’s Ongoing Search for Profitability


Every few months, Spotify seems to go through a PR fiasco that leads to people saying the company has a toxic culture. The Joe Rogan saga created a wave of pushback that Spotify was incorrectly putting its thumb on the moderation scale. Due to periodic battles over payments to artists, Spotify has a reputation of being hostile to artists. Earlier this week, Spotify took on heat for announcing a substantial round of…

Sam Altman Mania



Earlier this month, the tech news cycle was overtaken by the attempted board coup at OpenAI. The drama played out on X seemingly minute by minute. After a few days, it became clear the board’s effort ultimately would fall short. At a certain level, many people loved the twists and turns, as if we have been starved of such drama in tech. I guess the Elon Musk drama became a bit tired…

The Next TikTokification Phase Is Here


One of the defining post-pandemic shifts in tech has been unfolding in the social media space. Seemingly overnight, tech giants including Meta and Google found themselves on the ropes, fighting a new kind of competitor: TikTok and algorithm-fueled video timelines. From my vantage point of analyzing quarterly earnings, we are already seeing the next phase of TikTok’s influence seeping through the industry, and the observations make me increasingly worried about where things…

Humane’s Unimaginative Pin


After what seemed like a never-ending stream of teases and leaks, Humane finally revealed its hyped product: Ai Pin. It’s a wearable camera worn on clothing that is meant to move people beyond smartphones. While the company has received some accolades for simply getting to the point of announcing a new product – something that strikes me as being an awfully low bar to get over – there has been no shortage…

Airbnb’s Promise

Airbnb started out as a relatively simple premise: make some extra money by offering travelers a bed, a place to work, and breakfast. Instead of going through the complicated process of opening and running an actual bed and breakfast, a homeowner could “share” their space with others. Jump ahead 15 years and Airbnb is a platform with more than $60 billion of booking volume per year.

The idea behind Airbnb isn’t revolutionary…

Autonomy Is the Missing EV Piece



News of GM dialing back its EV sales targets wasn’t met with much surprise. Elon Musk’s downbeat Tesla earnings call a week prior had already lowered EV demand expectations. However, the question remains: Is EV demand declining simply because of higher interest rates resulting in higher financing costs? It’s prudent not to box ourselves into such a narrow explanation. Instead, there is a bigger problem at play. EVs are waiting for, and…

Why Tech Feels Tired




We still have two months to go in 2023. A lot can and will likely happen. However, we are already able to point to a few broad tech themes that have come to define the year.
  • Imagination has escaped the paid video space as companies shift their efforts to improve user monetization. Password sharing crackdowns, ad tiers, and price increases have been leading the industry’s new cycle. Consumers have become somewhat downbeat…

Big Tech’s Hardware Paralysis



It’s been a very busy two months for consumer gadget enthusiasts. With Samsung kicking off the fall product cycle earlier than usual in July to Google’s product event in NYC last week, we now have a good view of how tech companies are positioned heading into the holiday season. As the gadget recession rages on while AI mania remains palpable, the way companies are thinking about hardware is splintering leading to more…

Google Pixel’s Photo Editing Features Point to a Scary Future


Earlier this week, Google held its annual fall event for new products. Along with new hardware, Google unveiled various AI-powered editing features for photos taken on Pixel 8 smartphones. The features make me nervous about where we are headed from the perspective of AI.

Among the announcements, the following three new features stood out to me:
  • Best Take relies on “an on-device algorithm [that] creates a blended image from a series of…

The FTC’s Uphill Battle Against Amazon

For the better part of the past decade, there has been talk of the U.S. government coming down hard on Big Tech. Upset and frightened by how a handful of companies have grabbed so much power, lawmakers and regulators have tried to sound tough about doing the hard work to protect the public. At least based on the early battles to date, the bark has been worse than the bite. Earlier this…

Detroit’s Conundrum


Last week, we looked at how U.S. states proposing bans on gas-powered cars is not a development that EV proponents should be applauding or supporting. Instead, EVs need to stand on their own in terms of appealing to consumers and winning over switchers (from gas). Staying in the auto space for one more week, we turn to the developing UAW (United Auto Workers) strike. The UAW is a union covering 400,000…

Signs of More EV Trouble Appear



Earlier this week, I was in California to attend the Apple event. In what has now become a routine observation for me, the 15 to 20 Tesla vehicles seen in one city block in Silicon Valley (the Cupertino/Saratoga area to be specific) caught my attention. It’s still a sight to behold for me because in most parts of Connecticut it’s rare to see more than 10 Tesla vehicles on the road in…

Disney Needs a New Imaginer


Instead of the Bob Chapek to Bob Iger transition being a smooth one for Disney, a spotlight has been put on the many troubles and problems that ushered in the change. Yesterday, CNBC published a 12,000-word exposé into Disney’s CEO transition. One needed a cold shower after reading the story. While we can debate some parts of the story and question the motives of unnamed sources, it’s impossible to deny that Disney…

Instacart’s Sales Pitch



Last week, Instacart filed its Form S-1 for going public. Since IPOs are dependent more on narratives and timing than financials, the company and its bankers appear to have great timing. The brand has made significant inroads with the general public in the past few years and yet has plenty of growth potential for getting in front of new customers. Diving into the Form S-1, the narrative is in full effect as…

Higher Video Streaming Pricing Is a Good Thing

In what has become something of a quarterly tradition, people are once again sounding the alarm about video streamers raising subscription prices. Disney was the latest company to announce higher prices with Disney+ (with no ads) seeing a 27% price increase and Hulu (with no ads) seeing a 20% increase. Despite drawing anger and frustration, continued price increases end up being one of the better developments for an industry that has been…

ESPN Realism



After downplaying prospects of facilitating sports gambling in the late 2010s, Disney’s Bob Iger has had a change of heart. Earlier this week, ESPN announced a partnership with Penn Entertainment that boils down to ESPN getting paid to have its brand be used to promote sports gambling. The deal is wrapped in the reality of what live sports has become.

Set within the video streaming landscape, sports continues to be the most…

The Uncomfortable Truth With Big Tech’s Expense Bloat


In the second half of the 2010s, Big Tech looked unstoppable from a financial perspective. Revenue growth rates were through the roof. The biggest problem found with hiring was finding enough office space. New headquarters were the rage. Under the hood, ambitions knew no limits with most of Big Tech looking well beyond their core competencies for future growth opportunities.

Then the pandemic hit. Instead of putting an end to the growth…

Musk’s X Rebranding Is On Brand


Out of all the changes Elon Musk has pushed through at Twitter, rebranding the company to X fits him best. It’s not a business model change, such as pushing paid subscriptions, or a new product feature like allowing longer tweets. Instead, it’s the most outward example of Musk putting his stamp on the company.

In coming up with rationale for the rebranding, Musk put forth an argument of Twitter evolving into something…

Hollywood Nostalgia


The fact that the Hollywood actor and writer strikes (the first time both have gone on strike at the same time in more than 60 years) have not led the online news cycle speaks volumes. Simply put, consumers now have viable video alternatives to Hollywood. In the past week, none of my video content consumption came from professional actors or writers. That isn’t meant to be a knock on such professions but…

The Text Social Wars Will Be Overrated

The Text Social Wars Will Be Overrated

The video and audio wars have been unfolding for the past decade. In video, we have various battles being waged in paid, free, and algorithm-driven verticals. In audio, podcasts are being used as a way of improving music’s lack of attractive streaming economics for the distributor. These battles, including all the accompanying ups and downs, have been well-telegraphed and chronicled. Set within this content landscape…

The Reddit / Apollo Fiasco


The Reddit / Apollo Fiasco

The all-out feud between Reddit and Apollo has offered onlookers a little bit of everything. We have independent developer versus Big Business tension. Reddit, a social news network with approximately 60 million daily users, is looking to IPO later this year. Apollo, a third-party Reddit client for iOS and iPadOS, has become a symbol of much larger themes that transcend a third-party client. Questions are swirling regarding…

TikTok vs. Pixar

TikTok vs. Pixar

Last weekend, Disney saw its second-weakest box office opening for a Pixar film. “Elemental” brought in just $30 million domestically during opening weekend. This has led to various accusations being thrown at Disney CEO Bob Iger, who just saw his CFO resign last week, as to what happened. Talk about a tough stretch.

In what have become perennial excuses, some are saying Disney’s issue is relying too much on…

Smartphones Are Black Holes

Criticism facing Apple’s $3,500 Vision Pro headset has centered around a consistent theme: Isolation. Wearing the headset has raised concerns for some that society is headed in the wrong direction as we are increasingly removed from our surroundings. This isolation concern is said to be found with those wearing the headset, as well as those wanting to share experiences with headset wearers. A scene of a dad wearing Vision Pro to capture…

The Spatial Battle for Our Home



Earlier this week, Apple unveiled Vision Pro, its first headset. After spending 30 minutes using the headset at Apple Park, it was clear that the technology powering Vision Pro is going to change the world. Entire industries will implode while new ones will be born. Spatial computing headsets will not be a novelty toy only found in tech circles. Instead, we are going to see the headsets usher in new competitive battles…

NVIDIA Is a Chameleon


Last week, NVIDIA’s market capitalization rose by $183 billion. The post-earnings move represented the third-largest daily market cap shift to date. It was close to winning the title for the all-time largest daily move. It was very on point for such a remarkable occasion to be connected to the AI craze that has swept over Silicon Valley, and increasingly Wall Street, in 2023. The way ChatGPT came on the scene and got…

Disney vs. Florida


Disney finds itself in an awkward place. From a financial perspective, things are humming along. Disney Parks are busy printing cash. Linear networks are offsetting ongoing losses in streaming.  From a PR perspective, the Disney train is off the rails. Bob Iger is embroiled in an all-out feud with Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida. Caught in the crosshairs: Disney Imagineering – one of the storied groups within the company, responsible for customer-facing…

Goodbye Vice Media

The 2010s was a fascinating decade for the digital publishing space. As hundreds of millions of people embraced smartphones for the first time and social media giants found their footing, the way we consume media began to change. Vice Media was a key player in this shift. Put on the map by intriguing video reporting from Iraq, North Korea, Afghanistan, and Ukraine, Vice rode the new media wave to the top, getting…

Musk’s “Unregretted User Minutes” Makes Sense

It’s been six months since Elon Musk took over Twitter. Given seemingly daily crises and shocking revelations, it feels much longer than six months. One thing is for sure: Musk is shaping Twitter to his liking. The number of Twitter employees has been reduced by a whopping 90%. The blue check mark era ended abruptly. A war on tweets with outward links has been waged.

Along with those user-facing changes, Musk has…

MLB’s Pitch Clock Is a Warning Sign

Ahead of this year’s MLB (Major League Baseball) season, there was genuine concern that a pitch clock would ruin the game. A month into the shortened-game era, and it’s tough to find much of a debate about the pitch clock. Fans love it. The change is a great example of how live sports are being impacted by other uses for our time, including social media and free streaming video. One can’t shake…

Tucker, Don, and Nate


The media universe was shaken to its core earlier this week as news of Tucker Carlson getting fired from Fox News was followed within minutes of CNN firing Don Lemon. Both were arguably their network’s most outspoken talking heads. Bad news is said to come in threes. One day later, Nate Silver was out at ABC News, torn away from his 538 blog that he started in 2008.

While there are stark…

A Fintech Bulldozer


Earlier this week, Apple unveiled a new high-yield savings account in partnership with Goldman Sachs. The arrangement’s underpinnings point to a development in fintech land that can’t be ignored: Tech giants leveraging legacy financial institutions to offer new age financial services to their existing users. In the process, customer acquisition costs are kept to a minimum. This dynamic creates a scenario that will make it that much harder for what has been…

GM’s Predictable, Yet Bad, Move

GM sent shockwaves through the auto and tech industries last week by saying it was moving away from Apple CarPlay and Android Auto for future electric vehicles unveiled in 2024 and beyond. The auto industry had been displaying a surprising amount of order in recent years considering the amount of change that was said to be coming. GM’s decision has likely interrupted assumptions about where the competitive battle lines will be found.

The Art of the Turnaround


Bob Iger isn’t wasting time attempting to put Disney on his preferred track. Yesterday, the WSJ reported that Iger had axed Disney’s metaverse and membership teams – two initiatives in their infancy that were spearheaded by Bob Chapek. This follows a reorganization a few weeks back that returned power to the company’s creative executives. Disney is just one of a handful of companies that have been changing strategies to get a better…

A Gadget Recession


Talk of there being a “tech recession” has picked up in recent months. Weakness in advertising, slowing revenue growth in cloud services, and even declining digital goods commerce has fueled the tech recession talk. Amidst all the chatter, one development that has flown under the radar is just how tough it’s become in the consumer gadget space.

The stage needs to be set before going any further. The consumer gadget space has…

Silicon Valley Bank Isn’t the Canary in the Tech Coal Mine



Last week, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), known for its 35-year relationship with the tech start-up scene, imploded. It's very easy, and maybe even tempting, to position Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse as something bigger - a canary in the coal mine for Peak Tech. Such thinking breaks down into the following:
  • The way SVB’s meteoric rise in deposits, driven by Silicon Valley momentum during the pandemic, masked inadequate risk assessment is analogous to…
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