In the mid-2010s, the tech industry thought it was onto something. The maturing supply chain from the smartphone revolution had made it easier (and cheaper) than ever to produce small, stand-alone speakers that could be placed in the home. Instead of playing music or talk radio, these speakers would be transformational due to their delivery of digital voice assistants that was made possible by years of cloud and machine learning investments.

The…

Over the past week, the Wall Street Journal has published a series of articles that reveal Facebook is aware that “its platforms are riddled with flaws that cause harm, often in ways only the company fully understands.” The articles rely on a trove of internal Facebook documents, correspondence, and presentations. While the WSJ is right to position these articles as a big deal, unfortunately the revelations are not going to lead to…

Last week, Microsoft changed its return to the office timeline to officially put off employees coming into the office indefinitely. COVID, and in the particular the Delta variant, was the stated reason for the change. I don’t think Microsoft, or any other company delaying return to the office indefinitely, is being entirely up front about all of the forces driving such announcements.

The work from home movement, which feels like the right…

The warning flags have begun to wave for Peloton. As one of the most high-profile beneficiaries from the pandemic, it should probably come as no surprise that the reopening of gyms has resulted in concerning business trends for the company. The average number of monthly workouts per user fell by nearly 25% last quarter. Google Trends data for Peloton is equally concerning with a steady decline in search interest for Peloton since…

The shift from brick and mortar to e-commerce has been one of the more pronounced tech developments to impact society. After years of on-again and off-again rumors, it increasingly looks like Amazon will expand its move into brick and mortar in a big way. It’s a move that traditional retailers need to monitor closely.

Amazon’s strategy for retail dominance hasn’t exactly been a secret. By not having a chain of physical stores…

One of the defining ideas behind starting Inside Orchard was chronicling how the technology industry would become hard to delineate as its influence on society expands nearly unchecked. Ten years ago, tech was a defined sector. Ten years from now, most of society including industry, education, and healthcare will fall under the “tech” umbrella.

In his essay, It’s Time To Build, published in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, VC…

We were supposed to be in the electric car era right about now. Actually, we were supposed to be in the self-driving electric car era. Instead, we find ourselves in the era of car companies announcing electric car aspirations for the upcoming decade.

While there are pockets of electric car success and adoption, lofty adoption predictions circulating for years have failed to materialize. Tesla is the best example of consumers actively seeking…

When we look back at the early 2020s, many will describe the period as transitory in nature. Wearables are increasingly grabbing the spotlight from mobile while new technologies such as mixed reality are still a little bit off in the distance. We are starting to see glimpses of what mixed reality, more commonly referred to as VR, will be about, including activities that stand to benefit from mixed reality. A great example…

For at least an hour or so last week, cable news channels were bearable to watch. Instead of pushing political agendas and playing in COVID fear mongering, attention was given to Jeff Bezos flying into “space” on board his Blue Origin rocket. Some U.S. news networks even sent anchors to Texas to cover the event. The ordeal offered a brief sense of levity to what has become a downright toxic news environment.

Ongoing issues related to the pandemic involving variants and vaccination rates are now leading to what seems like some kind of turning point for today’s digital town squares (Facebook, Twitter, YouTube etc.)

Last week, the White House lit a firestorm of reaction when it disclosed that it was “working” with Facebook on flagging misinformation on its platform related to COVID vaccines. This came after President Biden went after Facebook and peers saying…

Two months ago, “A Work from Home Head Fake” went over my position that most companies are not built to succeed with work-from-home structures. Team communication and idea exchange have not evolved enough for work from home to replace traditional office settings without negative consequences.

Since that Inside Orchard essay was published, work from home has turned into a polarizing topic online. Tribalism has now entered the discussion as some…

As the anti-tech bills from the U.S. house antitrust subcommittee made their way through the judiciary committee last week, the tone in press coverage and tech circles continued to evolve. An increasing number of people have become convinced that Washington is going to come down hard on the “tech” giants. This feeling has manifested itself in different ways. Those who view the giants as too powerful are jumping in jubilation while others…

There continues to be something that I call the “iPhone mentality” in tech. A singular product or service is positioned as quickly transforming a market or industry. A byproduct of this thinking is the tendency for consensus to prematurely declare that first movers are winners. 

The smart home is still more of a concept than anything else. Those expecting one product or service to transform homes into smart homes have been left disappointed. The same goes for those who prematurely crowned a winner in the smart home race. The smart home remains the Wild West and is turning into a long-term play for the tech giants with strategy goals measured in multi-year increments.

The battle being waged…

Snap continues to be an interesting company. Thanks to spending years in Facebook’s shadow, the social media company has a credible claim to being perennially underestimated. Snap’s $96 billion market cap is just one-tenth of Facebook’s ($946 billion).

Snap is all about rethinking the way we use mobile cameras. Smartphones turned cameras, once used for memory capture, into communication tools. This shift helps explain Snap’s “we are a camera company” mantra. Although…

The tech industry sees its fair share of head fakes – items and trends that consensus thinks will be the next big thing but which fail to meet lofty expectations. 3D TVs, consumer drones, and voice computing are three such head fakes. The pandemic has introduced a few new head fakes in tech – the biggest one being work from home.

Companies have been carefully walking a thin line when it comes…

A retailer (Amazon), social media company (Facebook), and information services company (Google) now capture more than half of all advertising spending in the U.S. The Inside Orchard essay “The Advertising Triopoly” focused on how the three were able to reach such a milestone: establish formidable ecosystems powered by not only software, but also customer data.

Today’s advertising empires are built on tracking our behavior and activity online. The degree of…

Elon Musk continued his streak of being unlike any other CEO by guest hosting Saturday Night Live this past weekend. For those who have followed Musk over the years, including his Twitter activity, the show went pretty much as one would expect.

The acting skits, most of which were connected to one of Musk’s various interests, played off of his personality. Not surprisingly, Musk’s appearance was the story of the weekend, occupying…

With the 1Q21 earnings season coming to a close, we have a good view of how the world’s largest companies performed during the first three months of 2021. Impressive would be the word. Consider the following year-over-year revenue growth figures:

There are the usual caveats associated with revenue recognition. In addition, each of the preceding companies have unique margin and capex profiles…

Last week’s essay was focused on the rise of new financial bubbles. This week’s essay is about an asset that is showing signs of being an anti-bubble: residential real estate.

The U.S. real estate market is displaying some of the strongest fundamentals in nearly two decades in terms of supporting price appreciation. Instead of crazy and unfounded speculation driving home prices higher, a severe supply and demand imbalance is strongly favoring sellers…